A fall hello from First National Wealth Management!
As harvest season arrives and our local farmers weigh in their champion giant pumpkins, we hope you’re enjoying cooler days and colorful leaves. Below is our brisk recap of what moved markets since July 1 and what we’re watching for the fourth quarter.
What happened in Q3 (July–September)
- The Fed pivoted—gently. Sept. 17: The Fed delivered a 25 bps cut (interest on reserve balances lowered to 4.15%), citing softer labor momentum and balanced risks.
- Inflation ran a touch hotter, but still in the 2–3% zone. Year-over-year CPI rose 2.9% in August (core 3.1%).
- Labor cooled—but didn’t crack. Official August data showed unemployment at 4.3% with modest payroll gains, while shutdown-era private trackers suggest muted September hiring.
- Government shutdown began Oct. 1. As Q3 closed, budget talks failed, and the U.S. entered a federal shutdown on Oct. 1.
- Risk assets rallied; quality bonds gained. U.S. equities logged a strong quarter—multiple sources peg ~8% total return for the S&P 500, with the Nasdaq stronger, as AI-linked names led. Core bonds were positive in Q3 (e.g., Morningstar US Core Bond Index +2.0%), helped by the September cut and firm demand. The 10-year Treasury hovered near ~4.1%–4.2% into quarter-end/early Q4.